Foam

Start at Sticks. Right now the conditions read poor, the cross-shore wind from the west-north-west is roughing up the faces, and although the swell angle wraps in well, the chop is winning. The waves look like overhead-high, roughly 2.4 to 4 metres, and this is a confident reef surfer's wave today, not one for learning or stepping up on smaller days. Water is warm at 25°C, which helps, but the tide is barely moving, leaving the reef without the mid-tide sweet spot Sticks usually needs.

By 3pm the wind eases to 19 kilometres per hour from the west, still cross-shore but lighter, and the swell should hold in the overhead range. That window tightens the faces and is worth a look, though you are still trading against daytime light and an unfavourable tide.

Tomorrow brings a genuine peak, rated 5 out of 5, and the conditions climb into the same overhead band with cleaner winds. The swell reads most promising in the evening, so the timing shifts later than today. Forecasts at this range and distance can shift on small details, but if the swell holds firm this is the day to plan around, it will outrun what today can offer.