Foam

The early window is the call. Right now waist to chest on a clean, long-period south-west swell wrapping around the headland means the faces are probably bigger and more organised than the model suggests, and the offshore south-easterly is grooming them despite the light speed. This suits intermediates happy on a falling tide over sharp reef, where the hollow sections will tighten as the water drops. The rock in front of the house will tell you when it's gone too shallow.

By mid-afternoon the wind swings cross-shore from the north-north-west and the swell softens slightly, but the real story is the tide: you'll have missed the shape by then.

Tomorrow the swell picks up to waist to shoulder and the morning window from first light through to around 7am looks genuinely worth the predawn walk. The actual size may run a touch larger than the model predicts once the wrap kicks in, though the confidence in timing and direction is solid. Head out early or don't go at all.